The Presidential and National Assembly campaigns will herald the commencement of campaigns for the 2027 general elections in Nigeria. The ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) will be campaigning for the re-election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for a second term in office.
The 1999 Constitution of Nigeria (as amended) allows an incumbent serving a four year term to run for a second term. The constitution limits a President to eight years in all.
Tinubu is among 19 candidates vying for the presidency in 2027. Among them are Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Governor of Oyo State, Seyi Makinde of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) and Donald Duke of Peoples Redemption Party (PRP).
Political analysts generally view the forthcoming presidential election as a referendum on Tinubu’s government, but I think it is going to be a referendum on the opposition as well. For those who may not be familiar with the term “referendum”, it is simply a direct vote by the electorate on a proposal, law or political issue.
The presidential polls of January 16, 2027 are expected to bring two outcomes. May 29, 2027, is either the day eligible voters in Nigeria vote Tinubu back in office for another four years or they elect one of the remaining 18 presidential candidates to take over the mantle of leadership from him. That is provided Nigerians are allowed to exercise their franchise in a free and fair atmosphere.
The election is regarded as a referendum on Tinubu’s government because “ceteris paribus” (all other things being equal), the peoples opinion about the government will determine the fate of the President. If they think the government has done well, then they will definitely vote for him to continue. If they think differently they will elect a new President.
Nigerians will no doubt examine Tinubu’s achievements in office and compare them with the promises he made while campaigning for the presidency in deciding his fate. Tinubu’s 2023 campaign was built around the slogan of “Renewed Hope Agenda,” a strategic policy framework for 2023-2027.
The policy as designed by the President and his party was intended to reform Nigeria’s economy, improve security and enhance living standard through eight core pillars. Priority areas include economic reforms, national security, food security, natural resource development, infrastructure expansion, human capital development, innovation (including digital economy growth), industrialization and good governance.
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Against all odds in the 2023 presidential election, including serious concerns about his health, APC’s poor security and economic scorecard under the Muhammadu Buhari administration, gaffes during the campaign and the controversy surrounding his same-faith (Muslim-Muslim) ticket , the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Tinubu the winner, in the dust raised by his main opponents over the glitches that marred the upload of the results of the election to the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IREV). The rest is history.
President Tinubu today feels that his government has done very well, contrary to the opinion of his critics like the Catholic Bishops Conference of Nigeria who during a recent meeting with him expressed serious concerns about the worsening economic hardship, rising insecurity and democratic challenges. His appointees and other members of APC are never left out of the opportunity in the media to harped on the achievements of the present administration in various sectors especially the economy, infrastructure, education and security.
Some of the often trumpeted achievements of the present government include removal of fuel subsidy, unification of exchange rate, tighter fiscal policies and establishment of new tax architecture. Others are the attraction of billions of fresh foreign investments, the increase in the stock market, security/ military upgrades, and the continuous construction of the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Road and Sokoto Badagry Highway.
The government is equally credited with the establishment of the National Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) and creation of regional development commissions. NELFUND was established to provide zero-interest loans for higher education, while the regional commissions were set up to fast-track local infrastructure and economic growth.
Despite all these touted achievements, the general feeling outside the government circle and ruling party, is that the Tinubu government failed in its primary duties of ensuring the security and welfare of the citizens. Since the government came to power, poverty and hardship have increased dramatically in the country.
Millions of Nigerians are grappling with high food inflation and deep hunger. For the first time in the history of Nigeria, a hunger protest hit different parts of the country few weeks after the one year anniversary of the current administration. International partners, like the World Bank, describe the “painful economic reforms” as bold and necessary for economic stability and national growth, but also note that the reforms have severely strained everyday citizens with an estimated 139 million of them living in poverty.
Transportation and food prices skyrocketed after President Tinubu announced the removal of fuel subsidy on the day of his inauguration on May 29, 2023. While the federal government insists that the removal of subsidy has increased the revenue of the states and local governments, the standard of living of Nigerians continue to worsen.
In the same way, the liberalization of the foreign exchange market weakened the Naira, making imported goods much more expensive. The high costs sharply reduced the purchasing power of Nigerians, who depend heavily on imports.
The currency devaluation has resulted in a difficult economic environment (foreign exchange shortages, high operating costs) leading to scalebacks or exits by many well-known multi-national corporations and foreign investments. Procter and Gamble (P&G) and GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Nigeria (GSK closed manufacturing operations in Nigeria in December 2023 for example. GSK also shut down its commercial operations and instead moved to a third party distribution model for its consumer brands and medicine.
The departure of these companies and many others saw the cost of drugs go through the roof. The most affected were people with chronic diseases such as diabetes, cancer and arthritis. Number of jobs were lost because of the exodus of companies from Nigeria, thus aggravating the already terribly bad unemployment situation in the country. It seems the government purposefully allowed the average Nigerian on the street to feel the reforms without providing a buffer, especially for the vulnerable.
Although President Tinubu has assured Nigerians that the pains of the reforms are temporary, more than three years after he came to power, Nigerians have not seen any serious indication that their pains will abate soon.Insecurity remains a serious and complex national challenge with persistent kidnappings, banditry and violent attacks. Violent attacks continue, especially in rural communities. Attacks are forcing farmers off their farms, sparking fears of a further increase in food insecurity.
Nigerians now shun traveling on highways for fear of being kidnaped, thus hindering the movement of goods and services. Many rural communities, especially in northern Nigeria, have been emptied by violent attacks. Those who fled from these communities are now living in camps for Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). The International Organization on Migration (IOM) estimates there are more than 104 IDP camps in Nigeria.
Urban dwellers are not immune either. They are faced with increasing cost of energy, healthcare, education, electricity, rents, transportation, food, cooking gas and other basic necessities of life. Insecurity is also endemic in many urban centers in Nigeria.
The government may pride itself on its success in achieving macroeconomic stability, but for many families the feeling is that little has been done to alleviate the heavy financial burden on households and low-income earners. President Tinubu has faced public criticism for not meeting Nigeria’s economic expectations, even as the government defends its aggressive reforms as vital for long-term economic growth.
The public sentiments appear to be heavily titled against the Tinubu administration, less than five months to the general election. Many analysts have said his government failed in its primary duty of ensuring security and welfare of the citizens.
But the opposition shouldn’t think the election is going to be about the incumbent and the road is clear for them. Political analysts have been widely assessing that the opposition parties themselves are failing to meet public expectations ahead of the 2027 general elections. Civil society organizations in Nigeria say the opposition is not strong or organized enough to provide an effective challenge to the ruling party.
Many of the opposition parties are either fragmented or are bogged down by persistent leadership tussles and factional disputes. Too many of them have failed to maintain a clear, single line of leadership. If they cannot manage their own affairs how can they manage the affairs of a large heterogeneous country like Nigeria?
Of course, the ruling party cannot be completely absolved of responsibility for the crises in the opposition parties’ ranks. Recently, the Igbo Leaders of Thought, a prominent assembly of Southeastern Nigerian intellectual, traditional rulers and stakeholders, expressed concern over the role played by state institutions including INEC and the courts in the crises in the opposition parties.
The opposition parties are also not absolved from the crises within their ranks. Many of them, in their conduct of affairs, override the party constitution. They haven’t been able to curb the moles within their ranks who work, overtly or covertly, for the ruling party. These moles are the people who are often used to sow discord among opposition parties.
The drive for a unified national movement in the opposition through a broad alliance of opposition figures, such as the botched ADC coalition, is often outweighed by individual ambitions and competing personal interests. The opposition, for the one time they got together in this Fourth Republic, kicked the ruling party out. That was in 2015. Muhammadu Buhari of the APC, then a merger of some of the existing opposition parties, defeated the sitting President, Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan of the PDP. That defeat has not been recovered from till date by PDP.
The Labor Party (LP) emerged as a Third Force in 2023, but it was a ‘flash in the pan.’ Since then, LP’s success has been eroded by a prolonged intra-party crisis that factionalized the party and kept party leaders in and out of courts, including the Supreme Court, Nigeria’s apex court.
I conclude by arguing that the 2027 election is not a one-man referendum on Tinubu. I think it is a referendum on the opposition as well. I don’t want to interfere with the outcome of the election. That is for Nigerians to decide. I can only appeal to the Nigerian authorities to give the electorate a free and fair atmosphere to choose our next President using their votes.