Concerns abound as APC prepares to hold its national convention in February of next year

The All Progressive Congress will hold its national convention in February 2022 at a yet-to-be-determined location. However, the planned convention could take place amid a raging crisis in some of the party’s state chapters.

Parallel congresses were observed in several states, resulting in a crisis in some states. Mala Mai Buni, the Governor of Yobe State and the APC’s Caretaker Chairman, has been accused of fueling the crisis in Zamfara State.

In this report, we examine the challenges that the ruling party faces as the election approaches in February.

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Former Senator Kabir Marafa of Zamfara State said on Channels TV’s Politics Today two weeks ago that the Buni-led caretaker committee is a kangaroo committee that isn’t recognized by the law. Buni described Marafa as a “diminished politician” in his response.

Festus Keyamo had previously called for the disbandment of the committee following the outcome of the Supreme Court ruling on the Ondo State election.

“At this point, we can’t vouch for the legality of any NEC meeting called by Buni; the safest bet is to get two-thirds of the NEC members to sign an invitation to call a NEC meeting.”

During the crisis, the party had three times extended Buni’s committee’s stay.

The party is currently facing crises in the states of Ogun, Lagos, Kano, Abia, Zamfara, Cross River, and Kwara. Parallel congresses were held in some of these states.

This could have a significant impact on the convention’s outcome.

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Buni’s emergence as a means of stabilizing the party after Oshiomhole’s departure

A battle erupted between Adams Oshiomhole and the governors in the final days of his presidency. In the run-up to the 2019 elections, the former governor of Edo State engaged in a running battle with Imo State Governor Rochas Okorocha, Ogun State Governor Ibikunle Amosun, and Zamfara State Governor Abdulaziz Yari, all of whom wanted to anoint their successors.

Several governors were enraged by Governor Godwin Obaseki’s defection to the PDP following his treatment by the Oshiomole-led National Working Committee.

In 2018, we reported on how state governors were working against Oshiomhole.

Buni was appointed after the NWC led by Oshiomhole was disbanded. Analysts saw Oshiomole’s departure as a victory for the governors, who had wielded some power during the tenure of John Oyegun, the former chairman.

In an interview with APC member Henry Kelechukwu stated that the current crisis is about governors positioning themselves for 2023.

“Unlike in the PDP, where governors have absolute power, in the APC, the President is the de facto leader of the party.” There’s also a heavyweight like Bola Tinubu, who is rumored to be pursuing a presidential bid. As a result, the party’s situation is far more complicated.”

Insiders in the party believe that governors are attempting to secure their future by running again, appointing a successor, or even moving to the senate.

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In Bauchi and Adamawa States, two incumbents were defeated in their re-election bids.

Three governors have replaced the umbrella with the broom since Buni’s reign. Governors Dave Umahi of Ebonyi, Ben Ayade of Cross River, and Bello Matawella of Zamfara, respectively.

The impact of the 2023 rotation on the convention

The issue of presidential rotation will be a hot topic at the convention. According to reports, the APC governors met on Sunday under the Progressive Governors Forum, which is led by Abubakar Bagudu of Kebbi State, to discuss the convention and presidential rotation.

The meeting’s outcome was the convention’s February 2022 date, but nothing was said about the rotation.

As things stand, the majority of the likely candidates are from the north, implying that the Presidential candidate and the party’s Chairman might not be from the same side.

In the case of the President, however, no one has expressed a clear interest, but Tinubu’s supporters have been mobilizing in large numbers across the country. James Faleke, a member of the House of Representatives, has opened a campaign office for the former governor of Lagos State in Abuja.

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Dayo Adeyeye, a former minister, is leading Mr Tinubu’s SWAGA campaign in the southwest.

There are also rumors that Vice President Yemi Osinbajo may run for President. Mr. Osinbajo, a Tinubu ally, had to distance himself from campaign posters that had recently flooded Abuja.

Agenda for the Southeast

The Southeast has been clamoring for President Obama to be micro-zoned to the region. Ken Nnamani, Rochas Okorocha, Orji Uzor Kalu, and Dave Umahi are among the politicians from the region expected to run for the position.

According to Mr Kelechukw, the politics of 2023 may have an impact on the convention. The only saving grace, he said, would be if the president did not remain aloof.

“In the case of a ruling party, the President plays a critical role in averting a crisis. In any crisis, any politician will respect the President’s mediation. All of these problems could be avoided if the president takes decisive action.”

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The President, on the other hand, has a long history of refusing to intervene in times of crisis. Mr Buhari welcomed all aggrieved groups and even posed with all of the candidates during the 2019 elections.

He told the crowd at a campaign rally in Imo State to vote their conscience.

Probable outcome

The battle could come down to the governors’ chosen candidate. Although some governors, particularly those in the Southwest, are loyal to Mr Tinubu.

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Governors, on the other hand, remain a formidable force across the country. Furthermore, unlike the PDP convention, where most of the positions were decided by consensus, the APC convention could see most of the positions contested, creating a competitive environment.