NGX Gains 50% Year-to-Date as Market Capitalisation Hits N98.4 Trillion

As renewed investor demand increased market capitalization by N542 billion in a single session, the Nigerian stocks market maintained its bullish momentum at the beginning of the week, extending its year-end surge.

With year-to-date (YTD) returns reaching 50% for the first time since late October, the advance—which was mostly fueled by positioning ahead of the new year—pushed the benchmark index back to a symbolic milestone.

The All-Share Index (ASI) ended trading at 154,389.53 points, up 849.70 points, or 0.55 percent. Concurrently, the market’s overall capitalization increased to N98.432 trillion, demonstrating the strength of the resurgent confidence that permeates the market despite modest trading volumes.

Strong price growth in a variety of large- and mid-cap equities, especially in the consumer goods and financial services industries, served as the rally’s anchor.

Guinness Nigeria, BUA Foods, UACN, Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI), and Eunisell Interlinked were notable drivers of the day’s gain, indicating a clear preference for fundamentally sound names as investors adjust portfolios ahead of 2026.

According to market watchers, the most recent surge supports the story of a robust Nigerian equities market, which is bolstered by strengthening macroeconomic indicators and selective bargain hunting after periods of profit-taking earlier in the quarter.

United Capital Plc predicts that the market will continue to be cautiously optimistic in the coming days. According to a note from the investment firm, “the Nigerian equity market is likely to trade cautiously positive this week, supported by steady GDP growth, strong external reserves, and broad-based sector gains.”

“While profit-taking may limit sharp rallies, investors will concentrate on fundamentally strong stocks in consumer goods, banking, and industrials.”

Market sentiment is raised by broad-based gains.

Gainers just outweighed losers, reflecting improving sentiment in the market’s breadth. In contrast to 37 decliners, 41 equities closed in positive territory, indicating widespread participation rather than a rally spearheaded by a few heavyweights.

The top gainers were Austin Laz & Company and Ecobank Transnational Incorporated, both of which closed at N3.52 and N41.80, respectively, after appreciating by the maximum 10%. As fresh interest in mid-cap names continued to pick up steam, Eunisell Interlinked followed closely, gaining by 9.95 percent to close at N96.70 per share.

Among the best performers were consumer goods stocks as well. Guinness Nigeria increased by 9.82 percent to conclude at N349.90 a share, while Honeywell Flour Mills gained 9.86 percent to close at N19.50.

The sector’s impressive performance indicates that investors are getting ready for better earnings projections thanks to potential demand rebound and a reduction in cost constraints.

But there were some areas of weakness during the session, especially in smaller-cap companies. Leading the list of losses was International Energy Insurance, which closed at N2.34 after losing 10%. Following with drops of 9.92 percent each, Meyer and eTranzact International closed at N11.35 each.

Selling pressure also affected Livestock Feeds, which fell 9.60 percent to N5.65, while C&I Leasing shed 8.06 percent to settle at N5.70 per share.

Instead of a fundamental change in market sentiment, analysts blamed the decline in several stocks on profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing.

Trading activity decreased during the session despite the impressive headline performance, indicating a more selective approach by market players. With 47,892 transactions, the total trading volume decreased by 16.98 percent to 1.468 billion units, valued at N35.544 billion.

With 594.38 million shares valued at N12.362 billion, Access Holdings dominated the activity chart, demonstrating the ongoing interest in the banking industry as investors look for exposure to companies with robust capital buffers and earnings stability.

The FCMB Group had trades of 116.61 million shares valued at N1.26 billion, while Champion Breweries followed with 122.09 million shares valued at N1.84 billion. First HoldCo made transactions in 51.53 million shares worth N2.57 billion, while Japaul Gold & Ventures traded 66.16 million shares worth N155.25 million.

As the year comes to an end and focus switches to corporate actions, audited results, and dividend expectations, market analysts observe that the dip in volume against the backdrop of rising prices is typical of times when investors adopt a wait-and-see posture.

The market has had a significant psychological lift with the ASI’s YTD performance returning near 50%, particularly following weeks of stabilization. It also demonstrates how resilient Nigerian stocks are to both domestic macroeconomic changes and worldwide concerns.

Analysts anticipate that sentiment will continue to be positive in the future due to solid external reserves, forecasts of continued GDP growth, and growing clarity over the course of monetary and fiscal policy.

However, they warn that sporadic profit-taking may limit short-term gains, especially in equities that have seen significant increases in recent weeks.

It is anticipated that investors will continue to prioritize fundamentally sound businesses with solid balance sheets, pricing power, and earnings clarity as they reposition into 2026.

Market players think the stock market might maintain its upward bias into the new year if macroeconomic stability keeps getting better, albeit with more volatility and selectivity.

As the year draws to a close, the starting rally signals cautious optimism and solidifies the Nigerian Exchange’s position as one of the region’s better-performing markets.

The chairman of NGX believes that new listings will double the market capitalization in 2026.

Alhaji (Dr.) Umaru Kwairanga, Chairman of NGX Group Plc, is hopeful that the total value of the Nigerian equity market (market capitalization) can double in 2026 due to the possible listing of the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other significant economic players in the upcoming year.

With the composite NGX All-Share Index returning a strong 50% between January and the closing of trading on Monday, December 29, 2025, he anticipates that the market would be riding on the positive momentum of the previous year.

Dr. Kwairanga was given access to an article titled “2025 Capital Market Review and a Forward-Looking Agenda for 2026,” which commended the capital market for its crucial role in mobilizing long-term financing of approximately N6.34 trillion in new listings, bolstered by the strategic bank recapitalization efforts that conclude on March 31, 2026.

“By December 24, overall turnover on Equities at the Exchange more than doubled year-over-year activity, affirming increased market engagement,” he said. Approximately 79–80% of transaction value came from domestic investors, with overseas investors making up 21% of overall turnover. This indicates both growing offshore interest and local trust.

In a similar vein, “As of December 2025, the total value of stocks, debt instruments, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed on NGX stood at approximately N149.88 trillion, up sharply from the previous year.” With a contribution of almost 65.31% of the total capitalization of more than N98 trillion, stocks continued to hold a commanding position.

Strong corporate profitability, broad-based sectoral strength, and investor demand for fundamentally sound businesses—particularly in the banking, consumer, industrial, and telecom sectors—all contributed to this expansion, he continued.

According to him, the Nigerian capital market performed admirably in 2025 thanks to the execution of reforms, more robust corporate actions, and resilient market participation.

“As Chairman of NGX Group Plc, I am certain that the foundations established this year will put our market in a position to take advantage of more opportunities in 2026 and beyond.” In order to create a more comprehensive, inclusive, and globally appealing capital market ecosystem, investors, regulators, and market operators must continue to work together.

He pointed out that this was a result of significant year-over-year increases in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) into the NGX, “with certain reporting periods showing double-digit growth in offshore trading activity and flows,” as well as strong issuer confidence and investor receptivity.

“However, foreign investor engagement is limited by persistent macroeconomic uncertainty, exchange rate dynamics, and policy ambiguity around aspects like capital gains tax, with foreign participation remaining modest relative to domestic activity, averaging roughly 20–21% of total turnover in recent months.”